When it comes to sports betting in the United States, the NFL is king. Over half of money accepted by Nevada sports books is on professional football. With all this interest, it's natural that bettors would like to improve their chances at beating this game. Dan Gordon has been a well-known sports handicapper for years whose columns have appeared in numerous publications. In Beat the Sports Books Gordon shares his secrets to beating the NFL point spread.
As we would expect, the book begins with a basic introduction to NFL sports betting, the terms, and some general thoughts about why so few bettors can beat what seems like a pretty straightforward proposition. This material will be pretty familiar with those who have bet sports before. There's not much here that hasn't been covered in other books, but it's a necessary formality, and it's executed reasonably well here.
Next Gordon sets some foundations for beating NFL betting lines. He provides an excellent discussion on easy methods to set up power rankings and how to evaluate a team's schedule with an eye toward beating season win total proposition bets. The author uses two different power rankings when he handicaps games. These are what he calls his "letter" and "number" rankings. This can be a little confusing, but he's consistent about using these later in the book, so this section is worth studying carefully before the reader moves on. Overall, this is some of the better NFL handicapping information I've seen in print, and these techniques justify the purchase price of the book.
Gordon then divides the season into four segments and reveals what he looks for in each week. I wish he gave more justification for both his dividing lines and for why he modifies his bets as the season progresses. His methods may be sound, but they're not backed up with any data, so we can't really judge whether his approach makes sense or not. Intuitively, what he says seems reasonable, but most intuitive bettors are long-term losers. I, for one, would like some objective data to support Gordon's techniques.
The last section covers several important topics, such as information sources, keeping records, and the effect of injuries. I believe Gordon does a good job of covering these topics. The author also discusses money management. I don't like what most sports betting books have to say on this subject, but I dislike Gordon's thoughts on the topic much less than most. His statistics are sound, and I believe he has a grasp of what's realistic for a winning sports bettor. His criticism of Kelly betting is worth stating, but his own betting recommendations are provided without a solid mathematical foundation themselves. Nonetheless, unlike with many books, at least readers of Beat the Sports Books won't be getting horrible advice on this subject. That may sound like faint praise, but there are precious few books on the subject about which I would be this generous.
Overall, I continue to be disappointed at the literature available on sports betting. Most of what's out there is terribly subjective, not supported by a mathematical foundation, and generally unsophisticated. However, while I'm still waiting for a second excellent book to be written on the subject, Stanford Wong's Sharp Sports Betting being the first, in the mean time the public will have to make due with a few good ones. One of these is Dan Gordon's Beat the Sports Books. His information on handicapping is worthwhile as a relatively simple starting point and his math is decent, and that's relatively high praise in this market. Consequently, I recommend his book to those who bet sides on NFL games.
Generally, I'm disappointed at the quality of books available on sports betting. Among the books available, though, Dan Gordon's is certainly one of the better ones. He provides good handicapping information and avoids many mathematical pitfalls that hobble the work of other authors. Beat the Sports Books is a worthwhile read for those who like to bet NFL games against the spread. I can easily imagine a better book on the topic, but such a beast hasn't been published yet. In the mean time, this may be the best one on the market.
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